When the road ahead gets foggy, most leaders instinctively hit the brakes. But recently, I was invited to do the opposite—to help a room of over 50 business leaders keep moving through the haze. I was asked to lead an open-strategy session for an industry association grappling with constant shifts—tariffs, uncertainty, unpredictable demand, and customers tightening their wallets. The central question on everyone’s mind: What do we do when everything keeps changing?
What followed was nothing short of inspiring. Instead of freezing up, these leaders leaned in. They worked together to reframe uncertainty, found clarity through collaboration, and unlocked powerful insights that couldn’t have emerged if they’d chosen to wait for certainty. It reminded me just how much is possible when we push forward—despite the fog. This blog is about that mindset: how we can keep playing the game, plan for all possible outcomes, and lead with confidence even when the path isn’t perfectly clear.
In this week's Paper Napkin Wisdom Weekly:
- TL:DR
- Paper Napkin Wisdom Preview
- Leading Through Fog: What to Do Instead of Slamming the Brakes in Uncertainty
- FOCUS–ALIGN–ACT: Navigating Uncertainty with Strategic Confidence
- Two Blueprints, Need One?
- Week in Review
- Exclusive content, one napkin at a time.
🧠 TL;DR – Leading Through Fog: What to Do Instead of Slamming the Brakes in Uncertainty
The Insight:
In the face of uncertainty, leaders tend to pause, hesitate, or “pump the brakes”—but that instinct can kill momentum and clarity. Instead, wise leadership calls for playing the game without undue risk, building flexibility, and planning for all three outcome scenarios: things get better, stay the same, or get worse.
The FAA Breakdown:
🎯 FOCUS – Clarify What Matters Most
- Identify the specific uncertainty and your most critical priorities.
- Use scenario planning to define three clear paths: Better / Same / Worse.
- Focus transforms fear into strategy.
🧭 ALIGN – Ready the Team, Capital & Systems
- Communicate openly with your team—prepare them for any direction.
- Audit for system bottlenecks, capital constraints, and structural rigidity.
- Alignment means having flexible, forward-ready systems—not just agreement.
⚡ ACT – Take Purposeful, Flexible Action
- Launch 30-day experiments to learn through doing.
- Use If–Then plans to avoid decision paralysis.
- Small actions done wisely build momentum and clarity.
The Paper Napkin Wisdom:
"Leadership isn’t about knowing what comes next—it’s about being ready for it."
Paper Napkin Wisdom Podcast Preview
This is the only place where we give you a sneak peek into what's coming up on Paper Napkin Wisdom. Remember to share this with anyone who needs to hear these messages.
Episode 247: Michael Walsh, we continue the Freedom Series with part 3. All based on his new book Freedom by Design.
Episode 248, 249, 250: John Sleeman is a legendary figure in Canadian business — a true pioneer who revived his family’s brewing legacy to build Sleeman Breweries into one of Canada’s most iconic beer brands and the third largest brewer in the country. But John didn’t stop there. He’s also the visionary behind Spring Mill Distillery, where he’s continued to blend heritage with innovation in the world of craft spirits.
In this special 3-part Paper Napkin Wisdom series, recorded at the Spring Mill Distillery, John opens up like never before — sharing the setbacks, comebacks, and powerful principles that shaped his journey from humble beginnings to national success. You’ll hear about legacy, leadership, and the gritty truths most entrepreneurs won’t say out loud.
In Part 3 (Episode 250), we’re joined by his sons, Cooper and Quinn Sleeman, for a powerful conversation about legacy from a different perspective — what it means to evolve and carry forward a name that carries weight, history, and expectation.
Episode 251: Michael Walsh, we continue the Freedom Series with part 4. All based on his new book Freedom by Design.
Episode 252: Christine McDannell, serial entrepreneur, author, and M&A expert — shares the one principle that’s fueled every successful exit she’s made: your team is everything. Building the right team unlocks freedom, growth, and long-term success.
Episode 253: Rick Williams, author of Create the Future and seasoned board director, will share a simple but game-changing napkin insight generosity and growth. Stay tuned to learn the secret that transforms relationships and fuels real impact.
Episode 254: Seema Dhanoa, a pioneer in conscious leadership, guiding individuals to lead with purpose and awareness. She offers insights into fostering presence and embracing heart-centered decision-making in leadership.
Stay connected with Paper Napkin Wisdom on Apple, YouTube, and Spotify to be the first to hear these incredible episodes!
Leading Through Fog: What to Do Instead of Slamming the Brakes in Uncertainty
Uncertainty has a peculiar effect on even the most seasoned leaders. When faced with the fog of ambiguity—whether economic, market-driven, operational, or personal—our instinct is often to slow down, conserve resources, and wait it out. This makes sense from a survival standpoint. But leadership is not survival. Leadership is navigation. And in times of uncertainty, navigation requires movement.
The truth is, most of us—without realizing it—tend to "pump the brakes" when we can’t see the road ahead clearly. We hesitate to make decisions. We delay investments. We pause initiatives. It feels responsible, even wise. But more often than not, this hesitation becomes inertia. It erodes momentum, clarity, and confidence. And worst of all, it signals fear to our teams.
The paradox of leadership is that the absence of certainty must not mean the absence of action.
Keep Playing the Game (Without Betting the House)
In uncertain times, the goal isn’t to avoid all risk—it’s to avoid undue risk. Leaders can continue making moves, but we need to become more agile in how we move. This is where the concept of “playing the game without betting the house” becomes critical.
That means we stay engaged with our market, our people, and our goals—but we shift from binary thinking (go big or go home) to calibrated strategy. We make smaller bets. We test faster. We gather feedback in shorter loops. We continue forward motion, not by charging, but by dancing—with an open posture and high awareness.
Playing the game in uncertainty is about staying in the arena, not sitting in the stands waiting for the weather to clear.
Solve for Flexibility, Not Just Safety
Leaders often try to build safety when they’re afraid. But the smarter play is to build flexibility.
Flexibility is not weakness. It’s not chaos. It’s designed responsiveness. It's the ability to reallocate capital quickly. To shift people or responsibilities without structural upheaval. To change course without capsizing the boat.
Building flexibility looks like:
- Holding cash in a way that enables movement, not just preservation.
- Cross-training teams and decentralizing decision-making.
- Creating 30- and 90-day plans that can flex based on external signals.
- Maintaining vendor, supplier, and customer relationships that allow mutual adjustments.
We don’t need to know the future. But we need to be ready for it.
There Are Only Three Outcomes—Plan for All of Them
Here's a grounding truth for leaders overwhelmed by uncertainty: there are only three broad outcome scenarios. Things will:
- Get better
- Stay the same
- Get worse
Let’s stop pretending we need a crystal ball to prepare. Instead, let’s embrace contingency planning as a leadership strength, not a last resort.
Scenario 1: Things Get Better
Sounds great, right? But an upswing can strain a business more than a slowdown. If demand surges or markets shift in your favor, do you have:
- Capital ready to deploy into growth?
- People who can scale quickly—or are you already burning them out?
- Systems that can handle more volume without breaking?
- Structure that supports growth instead of bottlenecking it?
Growth isn't just opportunity—it’s pressure. Be ready.
Scenario 2: Things Stay the Same
This is perhaps the most dangerous terrain—the slow drift.
When growth stalls but doesn’t decline, how do we:
- Preserve focus in the absence of visible improvement?
- Avoid the rot of complacency?
- Protect capital without starving innovation?
- Support people so they don’t lose belief or engagement?
- Maintain and evolve systems so they’re ready when the tide turns?
Stability is not neutrality. It's a test of resolve.
Scenario 3: Things Get Worse
Here’s where we need both courage and discipline. If the trend turns downward:
- Do you have pivots pre-planned?
- Have you rehearsed hard decisions so they’re made with principle, not panic?
- What parts of your capital can be protected or reallocated?
- How do you communicate to your team with honesty and hope?
- Can you restructure quickly to focus on core value and preserve optionality?
Preparedness in decline is not pessimism—it’s responsibility.
What Great Leaders Actually Do in Uncertainty
They don’t wait.
They don’t flinch.
They don’t gamble blindly.
They design forward motion—knowing that motion is what reveals the path.
They communicate candidly with their teams.
They balance optimism with discipline.
They build systems that flex.
They stay in the game.
And most importantly—they realize that clarity isn’t found at the end of uncertainty. Clarity is created through thoughtful, flexible action within it.
A Final Note
If you're facing fog right now—economic, strategic, or personal—don’t pump the brakes. Instead, lift your eyes. Adjust your grip. Tap into your team. Play smaller if you must. But don’t stop playing. Don’t stop leading.
You’ve got three outcomes ahead of you. You don’t need to know which one is coming. You just need to be ready to move with whichever one arrives.
Write it down on a napkin:
"Leadership isn’t about knowing what comes next—it’s about being ready for anything."
Now go build the flexibility, foresight, and fortitude to make that true.
FOCUS–ALIGN–ACT: Navigating Uncertainty with Strategic Confidence
FOCUS: Name the Reality, Define the Game
The first step is facing into uncertainty with clarity—not fear. That starts by focusing your leadership lens on what truly matters right now.
Key Questions to Ask:
- What kind of uncertainty are we facing? (Market? Capital? Operational? Leadership?)
- Are we trying to survive, stabilize, or scale right now?
- What’s the single most important outcome we need to protect or advance?
- What game are we playing—and how do we stay in it without betting the house?
Tools to Use:
- 90-Day Focus Map: Prioritize 1–3 outcomes that matter most.
- Scenario Planner: Define all three possible outcomes (better, same, worse) in clear, practical terms.
- Risk Assessment: Identify what qualifies as undue risk versus necessary forward motion.
📝 Napkin Thought: “Without focus, fear becomes the strategy. With focus, clarity becomes the edge.”
ALIGN: Prepare the Team, System, and Structure
Once you know what matters most, align your organization behind it. This means ensuring your people, processes, and plans are ready for movement—no matter which direction comes first.
Alignment Moves:
- People: Communicate the 3-scenario plan transparently. Build emotional readiness and decision resilience.
- Systems: Audit flexibility. What’s fixed vs adaptable? Where are the stress points?
- Capital: Assign thresholds for investment or conservation depending on which scenario unfolds.
- Structure: Ensure leadership knows when and how to pivot, with clear roles in every scenario.
Signals of Misalignment:
- Team confusion about next steps or priorities.
- Systems breaking under small tests.
- Reactive decisions instead of proactive preparation.
- Waiting for “certainty” to begin moving.
📐 Napkin Thought: “Alignment isn’t agreement—it’s readiness.”
ACT: Move with Purpose, Not Panic
Action during uncertainty is not recklessness—it’s responsiveness. But it must be intelligent, measured, and fast-feedback based. Use micro-actions to generate clarity while preserving momentum.
Action Strategies:
- Run 30-Day Experiments: Small bets to test markets, messaging, or models.
- Develop If–Then Plans: “If scenario X happens, then we trigger Y action.”
- Protect Optionality: Avoid all-in decisions. Favor decisions that create or preserve options.
- Communicate Weekly: Keep your team informed, empowered, and engaged in the learning cycle.
Don't Forget:
- Momentum builds morale.
- Speed beats certainty.
- Action reveals opportunities you can’t see from the sidelines.
⚡ Napkin Thought: “Action is the antidote to fear. But it must be purposeful, not panicked.”
Two Blueprints, Need One?
The Demand Blueprint gives you a simple, battle-tested system to attract more leads, convert them into loyal customers, and scale with confidence.
With small, actionable steps and a four-week plan, this guide will help you fix the root cause of weak demand, build trust-based sales relationships, and create real-time engagement that drives sustainable growth.
The Demand Blueprint is usually $9.99, but as a Paper Napkin Wisdom subscriber, you save 50%. For just $5, you’ll get a clear, step-by-step roadmap to help you move from inconsistent sales to predictable, scalable growth.
The Profit Blueprint (an e-book) gives you a simple, battle-tested system to take control of your finances—whether in your business or your household. With small, actionable steps and a four week plan, this guide will help you stop running out of money and start building financial freedom. The Profit Blueprint is usually $9.99 but as a Paper Napkin Wisdom subscriber you save 50%. For just $5, you’ll get a clear, step-by-step roadmap to turn profit into a habit, not an accident.
Week in Review
This week on the Paper Napkin Wisdom podcast, we explored two transformative episodes that tackled impactful themes of leadership, resilience, and harnessing potential.
In Episode 245, Dustin Wells, shares his journey of rediscovering purpose after exiting his company.His central message, "Summit your current mountain," emphasizes the importance of fully engaging with present challenges rather than constantly seeking the next opportunity.Wells discusses the value of completion, the clarity found in moments of silence, and the necessity of separating personal identity from professional roles.He encourages leaders to make deliberate choices and to celebrate achievements before moving on to new goals.
In Episode 246, Aril Galper one of the world's leading authorities on trust-based selling, introduces his transformative approach to sales: the "One Call Sale."Galper emphasizes that building trust and creating authentic connections with clients can lead to faster and more meaningful sales outcomes.By focusing on trust rather than traditional sales tactics, sales professionals can foster deeper relationships and achieve success more efficiently.
Want every episode and exclusive bonus content? The only place to get the full Freedom by Design series is by subscribing to Paper Napkin Wisdom—unlock the roadmap to reclaiming your time, impact, and joy, one napkin at a time.
Check them out here:
